How do we use statistics

Raining in Cape Town

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Tessa Wessels, Faces on a Train

Vitamin A

Estimation

Estimation

Vitamin A example

What do we hope to learn?

P values

Confidence intervals

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Confidence intervals and P values

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The meaning of P values

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Types of Error

Experimental design

A new view of error

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Low P values

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High P values

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What causes high P values?

Annualized flu deaths

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… with confidence intervals

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Syllogisms

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Syllogisms

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Bad logic

Small effects

Flu masks

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Flu mask example

Study results

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Non-inferiority trial

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Non-inferiority trial

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Paradigms for inference

Frequentist paradigm

Frequentist paradigm

Height measurements

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Scrambled measurements

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Scrambled measurements

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Scrambled measurements

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Scrambled measurements

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The null distribution

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Bayesian paradigm

Bayesian paradigm

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A powerful framework

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Bayesian inference

Vitamin A study

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Cape Town weather

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Tessa Wessels, Faces on a Train

Conclusion

Your philosophy

Honesty